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TWO:Leona Lalage strove to speak, but the words froze on her lips. She was face to face with Garrett Charlton!

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TWO:With the introduction of practical questions, we pass to the great positive achievement of Carneades, his theory of probable evidence. Intended as an account of the process by which belief is adjusted to safe action rather than of the process by which it is brought into agreement with reality, his logic is a systematisation of the principles by which prudent men are unconsciously guided in common life. Carneades distinguishes three degrees of probability. The lowest is attached to simple perception. This arises when we receive the impression of an object without taking the attendant circumstances into account. The next step is reached when our first impression is confirmed by the similar impressions received from its attendant circumstances; and when each of these, again, bears the test of a similar examination our assurance is complete. The first belief is simply probable; the second is probable and uncontradicted; the third probable, uncontradicted, and methodically established. The example given by Sextus is that of a person who on seeing a coil of rope in a dark passage thinks that it may be a snake, and jumps over it, but on turning round and observing that it remains motionless feels inclined to form a different opinion. Remembering, however, that snakes are sometimes congealed by cold in winter, he touches the coil with his stick, and finally satisfies himself by means of this test that the image present to his mind does not really represent a snake. The circumstances to be examined before arriving at a definite judgment include such considerations as whether our senses are in a healthy condition, whether we are wide awake, whether the air is clear, whether the object is steady, and whether we have taken time enough to be sure that the conditions here specified are fulfilled. Each degree of probability is, again, divisible into several gradations according to the strength of the155 impressions received and the greater or less consilience of all the circumstances involved.252

TWO:This matter of shrinkage is indeed the only condition in pattern-making which is governed by anything near a constant rule, and even shrinkage requires sometimes to be varied to suit special cases. For small patterns whose dimensions do not exceed one foot in any direction, rapping will generally make up for shrinkage, and no allowance is required in the patterns, but pattern-makers are so partial to the rule of shrinkage, as the only constant one in their work, that they are averse to admitting exceptions, and usually keep to the shrink rule for all pieces, whether large or small.

TWO:The voice ceased; nothing more could be heard but the humming of the wire. Bruce swished into the dining-room and huddled on his coat.